By Michael Stephenson, President and CEO of StrikeForce Staffing
For employers accustomed to scrambling for seasonal workers every fall, 2026 is sending an unusual signal: the hiring rush is considerably quieter.
U.S. employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, 23 percent fewer than in September 2025 and the lowest September total since 2011, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But quieter hiring does not eliminate workforce risk. For employers in retail, logistics, warehousing, manufacturing and operations, it creates an opportunity to plan staffing around actual demand rather than simply joining the annual hiring race.
Why is seasonal hiring slower in 2026?
Companies appear cautious.
September job-cut announcements fell to 43,281; the lowest September total since 2022; while hiring announcements remained restrained. Challenger described employers as being in a "wait-and-see period" amid higher costs and economic uncertainty.
The broader labor market tells a similar story.
The latest employment report, released October 2, showed employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, while unemployment edged up to 4.2 percent. At the same time, layoffs remain relatively low. In other words, this isn't a mass-layoff labor market.
It's a cautious-hiring labor market.
That distinction matters.
A slower market isn't permission to hire late
Employers may look at softer hiring numbers and assume candidates will be readily available whenever demand appears.
That can be a mistake.
Operational hiring is rarely just about finding a person willing to work. Employers may need people with particular schedules, certifications, equipment experience, transportation access or physical and technical capabilities.
And seasonal work extends well beyond holiday retail.
Monster's analysis of seasonal job postings found opportunities across delivery, logistics, fulfillment, hospitality, tax and accounting and other categories. It also found that September and October historically account for nearly half of seasonal posting activity between August and December.
By November, much of the recruiting window has already passed.
What should employers do differently?
Instead of asking, "How many people will we need?", workforce leaders should build three scenarios:
Baseline demand: What staffing level will normal operations require?
Peak demand: What happens if orders, production or customer traffic outperform expectations?
Disruption demand: Who covers the work when absenteeism, turnover or supply-chain disruption hits during peak operations?
Then identify which roles are hardest to replace quickly.
A warehouse may be able to add entry-level fulfillment workers relatively quickly but struggle to find experienced forklift operators.
A manufacturer may have sufficient production workers but lack maintenance technicians.
A healthcare operation may have enough general support staff but face shortages in credentialed positions.
Recruiting resources should follow operational vulnerability, not simply headcount.
Build the bench before you need the player
Employers can also use a slower hiring environment to build candidate pipelines rather than filling every position immediately.
Reconnect with qualified candidates who previously interviewed.
Ask managers which former employees left in good standing.
Develop relationships with technical schools and workforce-development programs.
Identify candidates who could move from temporary or seasonal work into permanent roles.
And shorten unnecessary steps in the hiring process before peak demand arrives.
The objective isn't to overhire.
It's to reduce the amount of time between "we need someone" and "someone qualified can start."
Why This Matters
The costliest workforce shortage isn't necessarily the one with the most vacancies.
It's the vacancy that interrupts production, delays shipments, increases overtime or forces your strongest employees to absorb additional work.
A quieter seasonal labor market gives employers something valuable: time to be deliberate.
Don't confuse that with permission to wait.
Hiring Signal
Don't forecast seasonal hiring by headcount alone. Forecast where an unfilled position could actually disrupt the operation.
CTA
Before your next workforce-planning meeting, identify the five positions that would create the greatest operational problem if they remained vacant for 30 days.
Build your recruiting pipeline around those roles first.
How StrikeForce Can Help
StrikeForce helps employers anticipate workforce needs, identify hard-to-fill positions and build recruiting strategies that connect qualified talent with critical roles before staffing gaps become operational problems.